South Africa – murder down by 72%, rape down by 87%, since the #alcoholban…

The ban in South Africa is on the sale of alcohol, and has not placed a prohibition on the consumption of alcohol. So if you had it, could find it (or steal it) or even make it yourself, you could drink it. The consumption of alcohol has therefore not stopped during the last 50+ days of lockdown – the millions of photos on social media of people having a drink (or doing a raw egg challenge) is evidence enough that this has been the reality over the last seven weeks. Photo: Tracey Adams/African News Agency (ANA)

Statistics covering the period March 29 – April 20, indicated murders reduced by 72%, rape by 87.2%, assault dropped by 85.2% and attempted murder was down by 65.9%.

The ban in South Africa is on the sale of alcohol, and has not placed a prohibition on the consumption of alcohol. So if you had it, could find it (or steal it) or even make it yourself, you could drink it. The consumption of alcohol has therefore not stopped during the last 50+ days of lockdown – the millions of photos on social media of people having a drink (or doing a raw egg challenge) is evidence enough that this has been the reality over the last seven weeks. Photo: Tracey Adams/African News Agency (ANA)

5 myths about the alcohol ban in South Africa

By Carmen van Niekerk Time of article published May 21, 2020

“Myths, by their definition, involve transformations, struggles through various worlds or layers of reality and of obscuration.” – Anne Waldman

Myth #1: The ban on alcohol sales in SA means nobody has been drinking during lockdown

The ban in South Africa is on the sale of alcohol, and has not placed a prohibition on the consumption of alcohol. So if you had it, could find it (or steal it) or even make it yourself, you could drink it. The consumption of alcohol has therefore not stopped during the last 50+ days of lockdown – the millions of photos on social media of people having a drink (or doing a raw egg challenge) is evidence enough that this has been the reality over the last seven weeks.

MYTH BUSTED!

Myth #2: The alcohol sales ban stopped the trade of alcohol

We all know someone that has somehow managed to obtain alcohol during the lockdown. Social media has been buzzing with reports of people complaining about exorbitant prices or even being hoodwinked (paying good money for a bottle of vinegar instead of gin for example).

Edward Kieswetter, the SA Revenue Service (Sars) commissioner confirmed last week alcohol was still being sold and the illicit trade of alcohol was thriving. Darren Swerksy, the managing director of the PicardiReBEL Group in an interview with Channel Africa on May 14, agreed: “The government’s belief that there’s no liquor consumption is not true. This illicit liquor is genuine liquor. It’s being sold out of closed restaurants and bars who are on their knees … it’s being sold out of taverns…”.

He went on to quote the statistics of the break-ins (both successful and foiled) they had seen at their stores during lockdown.

So yes, the legal trade of alcohol has stopped, but the underground trade of alcohol has been growing and thriving in recent weeks.

MYTH BUSTED!

Myth #3: Reduction in crime in SA is due to the ban on alcohol

South Africa has reported a significant reduction in crime rates since the lockdown commenced at the end of March. The latest statistics covering the period March 29 – April 20, 2020 indicated murders reduced by 72%, rape by 87.2%, assault dropped by 85.2% and attempted murder was down by 65.9%.

Despite claims that reductions in crime were related to alcohol prohibition in South Africa, it is apparent these positive trends are also taking place in countries where the sale of alcohol has not been prohibited, and even in some countries where alcohol sales have been actively supported.

South Africa is one of four countries that have implemented a national ban on alcohol sales during lockdown. The other three countries are Sri Lanka, Botswana and Panama.

The similar trends seen across countries with and without alcohol prohibition suggest physical distancing measures and stay-at-home orders (lockdowns) are the key drivers of reduced criminal activity. This early evidence suggests that conclusions about the effectiveness of alcohol prohibitions during Covid-19 are premature and unjustified. The BBC concluded in an article on crime in Canada and the US, that “the result of less people in public is less crime”.

Latin America is the region with the highest homicide rates in the world outside of war. The New York Times reported on April 11 that this region had seen a significant reduction in criminality and violence during lockdown. In El Salvador, murders reduced by almost half in February and March, while in Argentina, robberies fell by nearly 90%. Colombia reported a 55% drop in homicides; 86% drop in assaults and 90% drop in robberies during one week in March – this is despite the ongoing drug wars in regions of Colombia.

Links to lower crime rates cannot necessarily be blamed entirely on alcohol bans as various government and news articles in South Africa suggest. Crime rates in terms of illicit sales have increased, and crime rates for other crimes have decreased based on travel freedom restrictions. Again, no direct and clear correlation is provided.

The common denominator between South Africa and the above comparisons, is therefore not the availability of alcohol, but the fact that the lockdown restricted public gatherings and the movement of people coupled with increased law enforcement on the streets.

MYTH BUSTED!

Myth #4: Reduction in hospital activity in SA is solely due to the ban on alcohol

Reductions in hospital activity have been reported in many countries around the world, in countries that have prohibited alcohol as part of their lockdown orders and in countries that have not restricted access. Kenya and Canada haven’t banned alcohol sales during lockdown, yet Kenya reported “very few patients” and Canadian trauma doctors said trauma cases relating to sexual assault and partner violence “are way, way, way, way down”.

As is with the case of crime, fingering the ban of alcohol as the sole reason for a reduction of trauma cases by two-thirds in South Africa is irrational. Editors emeritus of the SA Medical Journal Prof Dan Ncayiyana and Prof JP van Niekerk agree on this point , saying “the much-touted benefits of the alcohol ban of reducing alcohol-related injury admissions – independent of the larger impact of the lockdown itself – has not been demonstrated, and relies instead on beliefs in what may be the classic case of confirmation bias”.

MYTH BUSTED!

Myth #5: South Africa is unique so you cannot compare us to other countries

I know what you’re thinking – we can’t look to other countries as a reliable comparison – as South Africa is unique! While there is no denying that South Africa is special, we aren’t as unique as we would like to believe.

Looking at factors such as inequality, wealth levels, crime rates, levels of health care and alcohol consumption, it is evident that South Africa is in fact fairly comparable in many aspects to its Latin American counterparts and some African neighbours.

Although there are a myriad of factors that make us different, the above, without a doubt, shows that South Africa is not beyond comparison on the point of reduced crime rates and hospital admissions in other countries in lockdown.

MYTH BUSTED!

Where to from here?

Even with a stringent lockdown underway, the reality is that Covid-19 is not going away anytime soon. Government has indicated the risk-adjusted phasing out of our lockdown is expected to last at least six to eight months. However, it will take much longer to unwind the damage done to the legal liquor industry as a result of the alcohol ban.

In order to destabilise the foothold the illicit traders have obtained in the market during the time the ban has been in place, the sales of legal alcohol needs to open as wide and as quickly as is both safe and possible. The very limited off-trade sales of alcohol being considered under Level 3 will do little to address the ongoing illicit trade. More concerning is that it is not nearly enough to start alleviating the financial burden that has been carried by the legal alcohol industry over the last excruciating 9 weeks, starting mid-March when the first trade restrictions were implemented.

As a pillar of the South African economy, and custodians of more than 250 000 South African livelihoods, SAB as one of the largest players in the market is committed to working with government to find a solution that obeys physical distancing and puts food on the table for millions of South Africans.

It’s time to reassess what we think we know about the ban on alcohol sales in South Africa and have a sober look at the facts. We can still flatten the curve, but we don’t have to flatten our economy. Shall we drink to that?

Carmen van Niekerk is an excise manager at SAB.

https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/opinion/5-myths-about-the-alcohol-ban-in-south-africa-48320013

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